Brain games: Staying devoted to DeVonta Smith, riding Desmond Ridder and more Week 6 advice

June 2024 · 6 minute read

Everyone knows that stress is bad for them, or that’s what popular wisdom says, anyway. We’re told to avoid stress, as if that’s a choice we can easily make whenever we want to. The reality is more complex. In fact, a little bit of stress is good for us. It can motivate us, and neurochemically, it primes our brains to pay more attention to the environment around us to coordinate a maximally effective response to the stressor. Chronic stress is where we get into trouble, as unrelenting stressors create an internal environment that exhausts cellular energy, weakens immune responses and interferes with clear and logical thinking. It’s a hallmark of Major Depressive Disorder, as well as many others. Stress doesn’t have to be chronic to be problematic, however — research shows that even brief exposures to unpredictable stress can lead to decreased cognitive performance and emotional distress.

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I’m not just raising this topic because of National Mental Health Day (October 10), it’s a reaction to some of the NFL teams and players whose calling card is unpredictability. On one hand, fantasy football would be no fun whatsoever if we could predict every performance ahead of time. On the other hand, it’s frustrating – OK, stressful – to think you have a handle on a situation only to be wrong week after week. Who is Tony Pollard? Or perhaps more aptly, who are the Dallas Cowboys? Is Nico Collins C.J. Stroud’s favorite target or not? Is Gabe Davis finally a meaningful WR2? We’re trying to learn as we go, but the inherent nature of the NFL makes that hard. Teams are trying to be unpredictable and sometimes the best-laid plans must be abandoned mid-game due to defensive schemes, injuries, or game script.

My quick thoughts: Pollard is the key to the Cowboys’ success, Stroud is branching out, making weekly target share and opportunities for the Texans’ WRs a risk/reward situation (I’m still starting Collins this week), and Davis is the same boom or bust player he’s always been (I’m starting him every week).

The larger message here is that we can train ourselves to predict the unpredictable, making it less stress-inducing when the unexpected inevitably happens. We can also diversify our exposure to certain players and teams through multiple managed leagues, unmanaged best balls, survivor pools, DFS and, one of my personal favorites, pick’em props, in order to reduce our reliability on a single good outcome. Stressed or not, I know some of you can get a little too reactive to bad performances or bad matchups, so I have my usual list of players to start with confidence. And for those who can’t stop themselves from over-managing a solid roster or need some bye-week help, I’ve got some guys you can tinker with. (But if losing Packers or Steelers has you in trouble, I’m not sure this is the kind of help you need).

Don’t Overthink:

DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI — Coming off a dreadful showing in LA (1 catch on 6 targets), Smith’s managers might be ready to revenge-bench him for a meeting with the Jets. Currently, the Jets allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but a closer look reveals a more nuanced trend. Good receivers are doing fine (Stefon Diggs 10/101/1 in Week 1 and CeeDee Lamb 11/143 in Week 2), as are tight ends when a team lacks a top WR (Travis Kelce 6/60 and Noah Gray 1/34/1 in Week 4). The pass attacks of Denver and New England have enough issues that good defensive showings against them carry less weight. This is to say that Smith and A.J. Brown should be fine in Week 6. Smith hasn’t scored since Week 2, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him take a more prominent role vs. the Jets as Jalen Hurts is good at keeping everyone happy in this offense.

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Jared Goff, QB, DET — Goff is a player who nobody is clamoring to start but he’s coming off his best game of the year and stands to get Amon-Ra St. Brown back for a meeting with the Bucs in Tampa Bay. He’s QB10 on the season with a solid 9:3 TD-to-INT ratio and two more rushing touchdowns. The Lions are three-point road favorites in what is expected to be one of the higher scoring games. Goff’s Lions are the fourth-highest scoring team and have shown up on defense as well, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game to opponents. It’s a positive trend for keeping the ball in Goff’s hands, and David Montgomery might struggle more than he has vs. a traditionally stout Bucs run defense.

James Cook, RB, BUF — Cook wasn’t highly utilized in London with only five carries and four targets, and he didn’t do much against a Jaguars defensive front that routinely stopped him for little or no gain (-4 yards on the ground). The Jaguars have played the Bills well, but with a home game vs. the NY Giants coming up for Week 6, the Bills’ ground game should get back on track. The Giants rank as the sixth-best RB matchup for fantasy (half-PPR) and allow the fourth-most real points to opponents. Whether Cook gets extra work in garbage time or he’s a reason the Bills get up big early, it’s hard to imagine him not having a nice rebound game here. 

Tinker With:

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, MIA — You’ll have to be a bit vigilant with the news out of Miami as Sunday approaches, but wunderkind De’Von Achane is going to miss time and Wilson has a chance to be back on the field this week. Miami has shown a willingness and ability to accommodate two top-tier fantasy running backs so far, and they get the league’s second-best rushing matchup, facing Carolina for Week 6. While I expect Raheem Mostert to be the better play, second-best for this high-powered offense is nothing to sneeze at.

 Desmond Ridder, QB, ATL — If you’re frustrated with your QB situation, maybe having bought in on the Daniel Jones or Trevor Lawrence hype, and looking to shake things up, I think you could do worse than Ridder this week. He’ll take on the Commanders, coming off a narrow win over Houston in which he posted his best numbers of the year (325/1 passing TD and a rushing score). Ridder has had good fantasy performances in close games and right now the Falcons are just 1.5-point favorites over Washington.

 Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, DEN — McLaughlin has been a real bright spot for the Broncos the past two weeks, with 155 rushing yards, 46 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. There is a slim chance the Broncos get Javonte Williams back, but on a short week, I doubt it. McLaughlin is rostered in only about half of leagues and is projected insanely low on some fantasy sites. Don’t let that dissuade you from starting him Thursday night if you need a RB or Flex boost.

(Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

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